by Ian Brown, Transport for London
January 2006

London and the south east region are vital to the UK economy, making up one third of national GDP and the investments that improve the region's economy have a significant beneficial impact on the UK economy as a whole. Forecasts in the Mayor of London's London Plan predict the creation of one million jobs over the next 20 years.

The majority of these will be located in the international financial and business sectors of Central London which will lead to significantly increased pressure on public transport. This could have significant implications leading to jobs relocating to other international centres such as New York, Paris or Frankfurt.

Failure to invest will lose the UK billions of pounds in income and tax revenues and lead to reduced employment and urban regeneration opportunities. Rail is vital to Londoners. Passenger use is about six times higher per head than other UK urban areas and as a result, improvements to London's railways will affect more people and have a greater relative impact than elsewhere. However, travel in London is rated poorly by passengers compared to elsewhere, notably in terms of crowding.

This shows that London's rail system is most in need of investment. transport 2025 To meet the challenge at TfL we have developed 'Transport 2025' to define solutions for London's travel needs. As part of this work, 'Rail 2025' has projected passenger demand growth of 30-40%, estimated to what degree demand management can play a role, and identified where additional capacity is required.

As part of our proposal we have identified specific schemes that will ensure London's rail network can cater for future passenger growth. On this basis we have based its strategy for London's passenger rail network. The work is also relevant to the DfT's 30 year rail strategy, and the High Level Output Specification (covering the period 2009-2014) which will define what Government wants the rail industry to deliver in terms of capacity, train reliability and safety.

At TfL we believe that, because of London's crowding problems and the limited ability of peak pricing to provide a solution, improving capacity should be the primary objective.

To deliver capacity solutions a detailed analysis on a route by route basis has been undertaken which examines alternative solutions from increasing capacity of rolling stock, to lengthening trains and platforms, to increasing the frequencies of trains. Our rail strategy – Rail 2025 – stresses the importance of a new east-west rail link, Crossrail 1, as the only realistic solution to capacity issues into London and through central London.

The strategy also includes an orbital rail network for London, an upgraded main north-south route, Thameslink, and the upgrade of a major London terminus, Waterloo, which allows longer trains for routes terminating here. There is also package of corridor specific measures including:

• Longer trains and some increase in track capacity on the Lea Valley line between Liverpool Street and Stansted;

• Lengthening trains and some platforms on Southern & South-Eastern lines;

• The provision of increased service frequencies;

• The purchase of additional rolling stock and reconfiguration and refurbishment of existing stock to make the best use of existing infrastructure.

This includes works where necessary to ensure sufficient station capacity, and works to ensure more of LondonÕs railways are accessible to all. Our proposals will provide 40% more capacity, better accessibility, and improved orbital services. They would also enhance accessibility, bringing another 100,000 people within 45 minutes of their jobs, helping to improve the match between jobs and skills available.

Network Rail and train operating companies would largely deliver the rail enhancements though TfL would be responsible for some. TfL is working with Government and industry to ensure the railways can support London's economy, notably in the DfT's High Level Output Statement and associated Statement of Funds Available which are due to be published in 2007.

It does however require a long-term commitment to funding the £500m a year, plus the costs associated with Crossrail line 1, that the programme will cost. The decisions made for the rail industry by the Government next year are critical to meeting passenger demand and the development of our proposals. In turn, the much needed investment in the National Rail network will create jobs in the rail industry itself.

Orbital rail network for London An orbital railway for London is a key component of Rail 2025, and TfL's plans for London Overground bring us a step closer to delivering it. London Overground services will comprise the operation of the North London Railway (formerly Silverlink Metro) and the extended East London Railway which is under construction and due for completion in 2010.

New plans for the London Overground include the creation of a rail link at Dalston Junction to connect the North and East London Railways ahead of the 2012 Olympics and Paralympics. We are currently in the process of appointing a train operator to run the London Overground with strict conditions to meet TfL's requirements for quality, safety, security, staffing and train frequency.

TfL's planned investment of over £1bn will transform the North London Railway and the existing East London Line with the new trains and service frequency improvements on all routes:

• New rolling stock: 44 new high capacity electric trains are being built by Bombardier in Derby and are expected to enter service in 2009 on the North London Railway to replace the existing old train fleets, with more trains delivered ahead of the East London Railway opening in 2010.

• New services: improvements to services on the North London Railway will be made following the completion of the infrastructure works in January 2011. This will enable frequency improvements on all routes, including up to eight trains per hour between Stratford and Highbury & Islington. From June 2010 on the East London Railway, there will be four trains per hour to New Cross, Crystal Palace and West Croydon. The core section of the East London Railway will be served by up to 12 trains per hour.

The East London Railway project is the cornerstone of the TfL's Investment Programme and has proceeded at pace since it transferred to TfL in November 2004. Phase One of the project will extend the existing East London Line north to Dalston Junction and south to New Cross, Crystal Palace and West Croydon, and will be delivered before June 2010.

The East London Railway will improve connections for south east, east and north east London, and provide an interchange with the Jubilee line that will be key to serving the Olympic Park during the 2012 Games. It will also have a positive impact by revitalising some of London's most deprived areas, and help create new employment and leisure opportunities for over 75,000 people in north east, south east and south London.

In order to complete the orbital rail network for London Phase Two of the East London Railway project must be delivered. This is currently unfunded. The delivery of Phase 2 of the East London Railway would further extend services west to Clapham Junction.

The provision of funding for Phase 2 would enable us to fulfil the aspiration of many: an orbital railway for the capital.